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Never Tell Me the Odds!

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A character is told by The Smart Guy or Straw Vulcan that If His Calculations Are Correct then it's a Million to One Chance of them succeeding and/or surviving. Naturally, the Determinator presses on anyway. Naturally, he succeeds, proving statistical analysis to be useless.
And yes, no matter what, the moment ridiculous odds are mentioned, the probability of failure approaches zero (mostly due to the Million to One Chance).
The Other Wiki calls this "neglect of probability." Contrast I Like Those Odds, which have a similarly badass sentiment.
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DBTropes
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_1869a077
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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One smart astronaut in the Samurai Jack episode "Jack in Space" kept giving impossibly high odds throughout the entire episode. Jack beat his odds every time.
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In the two-part episode of Yu-Gi-Oh! ZEXAL where Yuma duels Charlie McCoy, Charlie's Number gives him unearthly luck, enabling him to roll a six on his gamble-cards every time. Astral - who seems to have incredible skills with mathematics - keeps calculating how unlikely the odds of are of so many lucky rolls, and it gets annoying until it reaches the Annoying Video Game Helper level.
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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The Empire Strikes Back is the Trope Namer here, although it happens elsewhere in the Star Wars works.
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_1e015a5d
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 The Empire Strikes Back
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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The Phantom Tollbooth: Milo's quest was impossible, but he did it anyway, because nobody told him it was impossible until after he was done.
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 The Phantom Tollbooth
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At one point, Belgarion, the rather impetuous hero (and newly empowered sorcerer) of David Eddings' The Belgariad, attempts to bring a stillborn colt back to life. His grandfather, the ancient sorcerer Belgarath, tries to stop him, but he won't listen. When it works, his grandfather explains to him that he could have hurt or killed himself (which is what often happens to sorcerers who try to do the impossible,) because to bring something back to life you have to understand Death. Up to now, it's turned out nobody understood Death that well. This becomes important later.
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In The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, when Aragorn suggests that Gondor march against Mordor as a diversion, Gimli comments, "Certainty of death, small chance of success... What are we waiting for?" On the other hand, Gimli is almost definitely well-aware of their history of not only surviving such odds, but winning outright, so he may just be working off a different set of statistics.
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 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
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Inverted in an episode of Dai-Guard: the Humongous Mecha's primary weapon is damaged. When it goes back into combat with a backup, one pilot asks their chances of winning. The response: "You'll fight much better if you don't know."
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Also happens enough times in Tengen Toppa Gurren Lagann. When anti-spiral Nia tells Simon that the probability of success is less than one percent, Simon says that as long as it is not zero, it's as good as 100%. Lampshaded and taken Beyond the Impossible when the Dai-Gurren Dan is faced with an actual zero percent chance. As Lordgenome's head states: "This operation had a zero percent chance of succeeding, but it seems that theoretical calculations are pointless with you."
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Halo (2022). In the Season One finale, Cortana tells Vannack that he has to pilot the exact path she's calculated through the gravitational forces or be "spaghettified". When Vannak wants to know why she didn't mention this before, Cortana cheerfully says their odds of success were already so low she didn't want to worry them.
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 Halo (2022)
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Neon Genesis Evangelion: Misato ignores Ritsuko's estimations of the probability of success catching the tenth angel being 0.0000001% (one in a billion). Once you know more about the EVA-01, the odds may have been way higher in the first place...
The operations against Ramiel and Sahaquiel have a higher probability of success (still only a small fraction of a percent), which makes you wonder whether Ritsuko and the Magi supercomputers are cooking up numbers out of thin air.
Rebuild of Evangelion has Misato defying impossible odds practically Once an Episode.
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Rogue One. K-2SO is always able to provide the unfavorable odds. Unlike 3PO, he's able to understand people don't want to hear them.
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Because Discworld runs on the Theory of Narrative Causality, it's a universal law that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.
In Guards! Guards!, the characters note that saying "It's a million to one chance but it just might work" practically guarantees success. Needless to say, this leads to the comic relief team engaging in a painstaking process of rebalancing their odds of success to be EXACTLY one in a million. By the time they're done, the archer who's supposed to hit the dragon's weak point as it flies overhead has been handicapped to truly amazing levels. He then misses, naturally.
In Equal Rites, Esk tries a feat of magic which, if she'd actually studied magic, she'd know is impossible. As she hasn't and doesn't, she succeeds. (It does have consequences later, though.)
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In Minecraft: Story Mode, this is directly referenced.
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_499a0e5e
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 Minecraft: Story Mode (Video Game)
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Iron Man features this exchange between Tony and his onboard AI during the final fight:
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_4b790c79
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This exchange between Spock and Kirk in Star Trek (2009):
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_50e2e357
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 Star Trek (2009)
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GaoGaiGar does this several times. "With courage, 1% becomes 100%!"
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In the first arc of Slayers Lina expresses a logical explanation for this trope: If you dwell on the fact that you only have a Million to One Chance, you'll go in expecting to fail, which guarantees that you will.
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 Slayers
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The Chronicles of Narnia: Before the Battle of Beruna in The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe, a Narnian soldier informs Peter and his centaur general Oreius that the enemy has greater numbers.
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 The Chronicles of Narnia
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The Pirates! In an Adventure with Scientists: The Captain proposes storming the QV1 to rescue Polly.
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 The Pirates! In an Adventure with Scientists
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In the Stargate SG-1 episode "Solitudes", Jack and Sam are stranded on a glacier on an unknown planet, and Sam starts calculating the odds that another team will find them before they freeze to death. Jack cuts her off before she can actually get to a number, and she sheepishly admits, "I think too much." It turns out she's right — going through all the possible gate addresses wouldn't have been helpful. Fortunately, they're actually in Antarctica...
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In Equal Rites, Esk tries a feat of magic which, if she'd actually studied magic, she'd know is impossible. As she hasn't and doesn't, she succeeds. (It does have consequences later, though.)
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_72f26584
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In Isard's Revenge, it's revealed that this has even rubbed off on Wedge's astromech droid, who considers calculation of odds to be a waste of its valuable microprocessor time. Ironically, Corran's own droid "Whistler" (which was built and programmed on Corellia), is the one who received this response from Wedge's droid.
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 X-Wing Series
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In Derelict, during the mission "Hail Mary", Lieutenant Mackie dismisses the odds and tells everyone to just get the job done. Considering the consequence for not getting the job done is The End of the World as We Know It, this is a rather sensible reaction.
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 Derelict (Video Game)
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In Star Trek, Spock mentions the odds of the crew's success being very low. Naturally, Kirk presses on anyway.
Averted in "Errand of Mercy". Spock calculates very poor odds of attacking the Klingon headquarters. They attack anyway, and fail and are surrounded—though they do make it as far as the commander's office.
Also averted in "Devil of the Dark". Spock predicts with extremely high odds that either he, Kirk, or both will survive the attempt to locate the Horta together. Unsurprisingly, he is correct.
Lampshaded in the film Star Trek: Generations
Lampshaded in Star Trek: Voyager: Seven of Nine and Tuvok are discussing the captain's latest plan, Tuvok points out it isn't the first time the captain has beaten the odds. To which Seven replies "She does seem to succeed more than random chance would allow. I'll add that to my calculations."
In the episode "Scientific Method" where the crew discovers they have been boarded by cloaked aliens performing medical experiments, Captain Janeway has the ship fly into a binary pulsar (two stars close together) to force the aliens to evacuate before their cloaked ships are destroyed along with Voyager, despite Tuvok's warning that their odds of escaping certain death is 1 in 20.
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I, Robot has the premise of Will Smith as a robot-hating cop, due to a traffic accident in which a robot chose to save him instead of a small girl, simply because his chances of survival were better.note The robot was forced to do so based on The First Law of Robotics ("A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm") — Will Smith's character had the highest probability of survival, and logically the better choice to save first. In a flashback, Smith's character can be seen begging the NS-4 to save the girl instead of him.
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In Towers of Midnight Birgette tells Mat that the odds of getting back from the Tower of Ghenji are one in a thousand. Mat responds by taking out ten coins and predicting that when he throws them every single one will land heads up (1/1024 chance if you were wondering). They do, and Mat remarks that "for me, one in a thousand is good odds." Being ta'veren means that when Mat is around one in a thousand actually IS good odds.
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 The Wheel of Time
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In Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal:
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In Interstellar, Cooper tries to dock the shuttle with the out of control spinning main vessel, in probably the most intense action scene in the whole movie.
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One Piece: When Kid, Killer, Apoo, and Hawkins are ambushed by Kaido (because Apoo was already one of Kaido's underlings and had tricked the others into a meeting) who gives them an ultimatum: submit to him, or die. Hawkins used his clairvoyance to see they would have a 0% chance of survival if they fought back or attempted to flee, and a 40% chance of survival if he surrendered. While he gave up, Kid and Killer refused to submit despite the impossible odds and fought Kaido until they couldn't stand anymore. Nonetheless, they survived, if only because Kaido admired their tenacity and planned to torture them until they changed their minds or died.
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In the series premiere of Honey, I Shrunk the Kids, "Honey, We've Been Swallowed by Grandpa", Diane says it word-for-word when she, Wayne and Amy are navigating a kidney stone field when they end up inside Diane's father's body.
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Apollo 13: When President Nixon starts asking for odds on the astronauts' safe return, Gene Kranz simply says, "We're not losing those men!" Inverted, in that he already knows the odds, but refuses to give them out.
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Code Geass:
The penultimate episode has a countermeasure for the FLEIJA superweapon; however, in order to work properly the user needs to input critical information 19 seconds before the explosion, and activated, the window of opportunity is only four-hundredths of a second. Lelouch and Suzaku, working together, manage to pull it off.
In episode 2 Cecile says to Suzaku that "It's possible, but the chances are close to zero." In one of the previous scenes he asked Cecile if his friend Lelouch can be alive. Unsurprisingly it turns out that he is alive and leads terrorist force against Britanian army.
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Said word for word by Naruto in Team 8 about passing the chuunin exams.
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Rebuild of Evangelion has Misato defying impossible odds practically Once an Episode.
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Barbarella. Barbarella's spaceship is damaged in a space hurricane. The computer tells her that chances of survival are 0 point 00000h..0h...0h...0hhhhh.... Our heroine, of course, survives unharmed.
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In Space Quest VI: Roger Wilco in the Spinal Frontier, the shuttle's automatic co-pilot, Manuel Auxverride, tells Roger he's "97.2 percent certain" he can get the shuttle to Delta Burksulon V after damage caused by a Negative Space Wedgie is repaired. Roger questions the odds:
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 Space Quest VI: Roger Wilco in the Spinal Frontier (Video Game)
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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Ninjago: In the episode "Day of the Great Devourer", as the Ninja are escaping the titular serpent, Zane says the probability of making it to Scattered canyon is less than 8%. Nya says "Never tell me the odds!" in response.
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy parodies this with the Heart of Gold that's essentially powered by extremely slim odds of something happening.
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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In Transformers: Animated, Sentinel Prime orders Jazz to bring the ship to full power and take the route through an ion storm, as it is the quickest way back to Cybertron. Jazz states why both reasons are a bad idea. His response: He pulls rank on him and threatens to throw him into the brig with the Decepticons imprisoned on the ship. It doesn't end well. But for different reasons...
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_bcdcf629
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El Goonish Shive references the Star Wars example here.
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_bd310eaa
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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Doctor Who:
Inverted in "The Doctor Dances", where Captain Jack actually asks for his odds of survival (and then, of course, defies them anyway). Notably, he doesn't try to fight them. Having been told he is dead, he has a drink and then gets rescued.
From "The Doctor's Wife":
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_c43df4d8
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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Averted in Blake's 7 where battle computers are consulted as a routine strategy, especially by stoic computer expert Avon. In "Horizon", when Avon considers abandoning his colleagues and fleeing with the Liberator, he has Orac calculate the odds of succeeding with a Crew of One. Sometimes though he is disappointed.
And this line from "Ultraworld":
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_c6f7e804
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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Star Wars Rebels: "The Wynkahthu Job" has a variant:
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_c72c2d06
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 Star Wars Rebels
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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Lampshaded in the film Star Trek: Generations
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_d0c31ab
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 Star Trek: Generations
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_d5166b44
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Halo 3 gives us this charmer:
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_d5166b44
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 Halo 3 (Video Game)
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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Averted in Kaiji, which is about gambling — the path to success is to find a strategy or cheat that leaves as little as possible to chance. In the first season finale, Kaiji's rigged lottery fails and he panics, taking a blind chance for the first time and missing an opening purposefully left him by the Big Bad. He suffers a humiliating defeat.
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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Star Wars Legends:
Rogue Squadron (mostly in the X-Wing novels, but also everywhere else) succeeds in so many "impossible" and "one-in-a-million" missions that their unofficial motto is, "Impossible is our stock in trade". Given that they were founded by the only two X-Wing pilots to survive the first Death Star...
In fact, disdain for the odds practically becomes Corellia's hat: Han Solo, Wedge Antilles, and Corran Horn all explain their Never Tell Me the Odds! styles with "I'm Corellian." Though Wedge, at least, does look at the odds and try to compensate for them, and Corran is annoyed that Han's managed to reinforce that hat to the point where Corellians are commonly seen as reckless gamblers.
In Isard's Revenge, it's revealed that this has even rubbed off on Wedge's astromech droid, who considers calculation of odds to be a waste of its valuable microprocessor time. Ironically, Corran's own droid "Whistler" (which was built and programmed on Corellia), is the one who received this response from Wedge's droid.
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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The Murderbot Diaries. Murderbot has a risk assessment module, but always complains about it being a cheap and inaccurate program whenever Murderbot is about do something risky. In Exit Strategy Murderbot goes to rescue Dr. Mensah and just turns the risk assessment module off.
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_e76f2e85
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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Parodied in Starslip here.
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_e9e2b5e9
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In Family Guy's The Empire Strikes Back parody "Something, Something, Something Dark Side":
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 Family Guy
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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Lampshaded in Star Trek: Voyager: Seven of Nine and Tuvok are discussing the captain's latest plan, Tuvok points out it isn't the first time the captain has beaten the odds. To which Seven replies "She does seem to succeed more than random chance would allow. I'll add that to my calculations."
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 Star Trek: Voyager
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This exchange from Titan Maximum:
 Never Tell Me the Odds! / int_efaeff60
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 Titan Maximum
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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Spoofed in Vexxarr when Minionbot tells about how he's now living his dream to fight implacable enemies and beat them against impossible odds.
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 Vexxarr (Webcomic)
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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Inverted in Eyeshield 21, where not only does everyone want to know the odds, at one point Hiruma reminds the team that 99% chance of winning is still 1% chance of losing.
Although Hiruma will take the chance of winning if it is anything more than 0% (and he rarely says the odds are 0%)
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Dr. Ichigaki in YuYu Hakusho
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Never Tell Me the Odds!
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The finale of Tomica Hero Rescue Force has the team repeatedly told that they only have a 0.1% chance of defeating the Big Bad. This just prompts Hikaru to claim that with the power of their "Rescue Souls", they'll make it one thousand percent.
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In Guards! Guards!, the characters note that saying "It's a million to one chance but it just might work" practically guarantees success. Needless to say, this leads to the comic relief team engaging in a painstaking process of rebalancing their odds of success to be EXACTLY one in a million. By the time they're done, the archer who's supposed to hit the dragon's weak point as it flies overhead has been handicapped to truly amazing levels. He then misses, naturally.
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The following is a list of statements referring to the current page from other pages.

 Never Tell Me the Odds!
processingCategory2
Math Tropes
 Never Tell Me the Odds!
processingCategory2
Probability Tropes
 Code Geass: Akito the Exiled / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Dai-Guard / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 GaoGaiGar / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 ID: Invaded / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Tengen Toppa Gurren Lagann / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 A New ROAD of Misfortune (Fanfic) / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Conquest (Fanfic) / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 The Time I Was Reincarnated As An Explosive Pomeranian (Fanfic) / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Rogue One / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Star Trek (2009) / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Starcrash / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 The Empire Strikes Back / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 The Last Jedi / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 The Lord of the Rings / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 The Rise of Skywalker / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Citizen of Earth / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Imperial Radch / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Log Horizon / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 The Guns of Navarone / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 The Phantom Tollbooth / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Tunnel in the Sky / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 X-Wing Series / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 DonQuigleone
seeAlso
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 LockDown
seeAlso
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 NeverTellMetheOdds
sameAs
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Rainbow: Nisha Rokubou no Shichinin (Manga) / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Blake's 7 / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 9-1-1: Lone Star / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Scrubs / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Tomica Hero Rescue Force / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Grandia II (Video Game) / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Idle Champions of the Forgotten Realms (Video Game) / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Plants vs. Zombies: Heroes (Video Game) / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Star Shift Rebellion (Video Game) / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 The Crown & the Flame (Visual Novel) / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Pokémon: Path to the Peak (Web Animation) / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 The Hire (Web Video) / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 3kliksphilip (Web Video) / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Leftover Soup (Webcomic) / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Vexxarr (Webcomic) / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 Ready Jet Go! Space Camp / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!
 The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress / int_c0337b45
type
Never Tell Me the Odds!