...it's like TV Tropes, but LINKED DATA!
Sharpshooter Fallacy
- 92 statements
- 16 feature instances
- 8 referencing feature instances
| Sharpshooter Fallacy | type |
FeatureClass | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy | label |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy | page |
SharpshooterFallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy | comment |
A way of fiddling statistics or other forms of data analysis, this occurs where data is gathered first and then an after-the-fact hypothesis is produced to explain the conclusion drawn from it: in other words, the same data is used to generate both the hypothesis and the conclusion. The prototypical example is of a person shooting a gun at a wall, then painting a target around the bullet-hole, and claiming to have scored a bullseye because that is clearly where he was trying to hit. Obviously, hitting a bullseye is significant if you decided where the bullseye was before you fired, but not so much if you claim you knew where it was after the fact. All such "I Meant to Do That" justifications are examples of this fallacy, but it also applies to cases where a set of data is analysed with no real methodology, simply in an attempt to find something by any means. When the thing is found, the convoluted method is said to obviously be the intended method of parsing the data. This is a common fallacy in claims of messages in fiction: the writer will find a pattern to the text, then declare this pattern was obviously the author's intention, without any proof this is actually the case. Karl Popper summed up this fallacy as applied to science with "A theory that explains everything, explains nothing". Basically, if any possible outcome could be interpreted as supporting the theory then it is useless. Which is pretty much the same thing as the concept of falsifiability. Frequently overlaps with Insane Troll Logic. Contrast with Moving the Goalposts, where standards are frequently altered to disprove an argument. |
|
| Sharpshooter Fallacy | fetched |
2024-04-13T20:30:53Z | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy | parsed |
2024-04-13T20:30:53Z | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy | processingComment |
Dropped link to NumberOfTheBeast: Not an Item - FEATURE | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy | processingComment |
Dropped link to TheIlluminatusTrilogy: Not an Item - UNKNOWN | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy | processingComment |
Dropped link to VanillaIce: Not an Item - IGNORE | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy | processingComment |
Dropped link to parodiedtrope: Not an Item - FEATURE | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy | processingUnknown |
TheIlluminatusTrilogy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy | isPartOf |
DBTropes | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_19abbeb9 | type |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_19abbeb9 | comment |
A literal example in The Smurfs where one Smurf claims he always hits the center of the target, and proves it by loosing an arrow upwards, and once it falls in a pond, points out that it's in the middle of the concentric rings that look like a target. | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_19abbeb9 | featureApplicability |
1.0 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_19abbeb9 | featureConfidence |
1.0 | |
| The Smurfs (Comic Book) | hasFeature |
Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_19abbeb9 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_3b7abee2 | type |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_3b7abee2 | comment |
This was a fairly common way people joked about the release date of a Half-Life 3. By using this trope and a hearty dose of exaggeration people would come up with really bizarre and sometimes hilarious reasons for the prior mentioned game's reveal. For example, if Steam was having a sale for 10% off games released by Square Enix, Square Enix has 10 letters, 10% of 10 is 1. Final Fantasy 1 was released in 1987. Final Fantasy III was released in 1990, and if you add 2 years from when Final Fantasy III came out, you get 1992. Uranium is element number 92, which is radioactive and has a half-life. | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_3b7abee2 | featureApplicability |
1.0 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_3b7abee2 | featureConfidence |
1.0 | |
| Half-Life (Video Game) | hasFeature |
Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_3b7abee2 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_3defe34c | type |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_3defe34c | comment |
Discussed in π, when Sol criticizes Max for obsessing over the number 216 (because that's the amount of digits on the number that his theory has spewed up). He says that Max will soon see 216 everywhere he looks because he wants to see it, lowering himself from mathematician to numerologist. The two groups of antagonists of the story believe that the number will somehow allow them to manipulate (not control, manipulate) the stock market and is the true name of God, respectively—and the film implies that they are either totally crazy, are right about something there, or just happen to be both. | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_3defe34c | featureApplicability |
1.0 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_3defe34c | featureConfidence |
1.0 | |
| Discussed Trope | hasFeature |
Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_3defe34c | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_47996b21 | type |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_47996b21 | comment |
Basically, the film The Number 23 runs on this. Once you start looking for 23 (or any other number) in creative enough ways, you'll see it everywhere. | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_47996b21 | featureApplicability |
1.0 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_47996b21 | featureConfidence |
1.0 | |
| The Number 23 | hasFeature |
Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_47996b21 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_4c4e08ca | type |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_4c4e08ca | comment |
Played literally in an episode of The Benny Hill Show. Camera pans across a bunch of small white circles in a wall, each of which has been shot smack in the middle. As the camera continues to pan it comes across Benny, painting circles around the holes. | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_4c4e08ca | featureApplicability |
1.0 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_4c4e08ca | featureConfidence |
1.0 | |
| The Benny Hill Show | hasFeature |
Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_4c4e08ca | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_60381be1 | type |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_60381be1 | comment |
In O Brother, Where Art Thou?, Everett steals a locket from Pete's cousin, justifying his theft by pointing out that Wash sold them out to the police. Pete responds that there was no way Everett could have predicted that Wash was going to betray them before he stole the locket, to which Everett claims that he merely borrowed in until they knew for sure. | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_60381be1 | featureApplicability |
1.0 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_60381be1 | featureConfidence |
1.0 | |
| O Brother, Where Art Thou? | hasFeature |
Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_60381be1 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_6ada53b1 | type |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_6ada53b1 | comment |
The fallacy is mentioned in-universe in one episode of NUMB3RS by Charlie after Megan mentions that a school that recently had a playground cave-in also seems to have an unusually high rate of cancer among students; he suggests that the cancer rate only seems significant because they're actively looking for something out of the ordinary. It's Subverted a few moments later when they find evidence suggesting there actually is a connection between the two (which ultimately turns out to be the case). | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_6ada53b1 | featureApplicability |
-0.3 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_6ada53b1 | featureConfidence |
1.0 | |
| NUMB3RS | hasFeature |
Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_6ada53b1 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_7832b74c | type |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_7832b74c | comment |
Steven Universe has Ronaldo Fryman. He eats, breathes, and sleeps this fallacy. Through it he sees symbolism and messages in everything. He believes in all kinds of strange conspiracies even for the kind of universe he lives in. Doubles as a case of I Just Want to Be Special given that in the earlier episodes, when briefly brought to his senses he sadly remarks that he isn't at the center of anything and takes a 10-Minute Retirement from writing his blog about paranormal events in Beach City. Hilariously, he's actually the one non-Gem-connected character in the show to get the most right about what the Homeworld Gems and their goals are like. | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_7832b74c | featureApplicability |
1.0 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_7832b74c | featureConfidence |
1.0 | |
| Steven Universe | hasFeature |
Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_7832b74c | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_7c038c18 | type |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_7c038c18 | comment |
Parodied in Phineas and Ferb. In "Undercover Carl", OWCA begins to suspect that Phineas is working for Doofenshmirtz because when they took sound bytes of his voice and played them back in a completely random order, they got a few sentences about how he wanted to help Doofenshmirtz take over the tri-state area. | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_7c038c18 | featureApplicability |
1.0 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_7c038c18 | featureConfidence |
1.0 | |
| Phineas and Ferb | hasFeature |
Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_7c038c18 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_a2c37f38 | type |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_a2c37f38 | comment |
In Planescape: Torment, Morte mentions the Rule of Three, a popular underlying principle of the Multiverse. He then criticizes it and explains that if you ascribe importance to any number, you're bound to find evidence for it. It's also a good example of the Fallacy Fallacy. Planescape is a setting which runs quite literally on Clap Your Hands If You Believe, and the planes themselves warp in response to belief. In one case, it's so strong that a man is convinced he does not exist — and stops existing! As a consequence, many people believing in the rule of three is evidence that the rule of three is real in that setting... and if it wasn't before it is now. | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_a2c37f38 | featureApplicability |
1.0 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_a2c37f38 | featureConfidence |
1.0 | |
| Planescape: Torment (Video Game) | hasFeature |
Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_a2c37f38 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_a2fece64 | type |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_a2fece64 | comment |
In Girl Days, Ryouga is mentioned to go by a version of this. | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_a2fece64 | featureApplicability |
1.0 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_a2fece64 | featureConfidence |
1.0 | |
| Girl Days (Fanfic) | hasFeature |
Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_a2fece64 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_a5549ed0 | type |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_a5549ed0 | comment |
The so-called "Bible Codes" use this fallacy. Rather than saying what they expect to find in a particular book beforehand, the people who produce these simply manipulate the letters until they find something that they can use. Words count regardless of whether they run up, down, right-to-left, left-to-right, diagonally, or even have the letters adjacent at all. This is shot down by a skeptic in a History Channel documentary about such Bible Codes. To prove that such a "spectacularly rare occurrence" actually was more likely than people were willing to admit, he applied the principles for finding codes to Moby-Dick, looking for "predictions" of the assassination of JFK. He found quite a few. As with the metaphor of Monkeys on a Typewriter, any long-enough stream of data, if looked over using enough different formulae, will produce words or phrases that correlate to some kind of event that occurred after that book was written. John Safran vs God put this argument to the test by feeding the entirety of Vanilla Ice's back catalog (song lyrics and liner notes) into the decoder; even "Ice Ice Baby" can turn up 9/11 "predictions." Then they took the 9/11 Commission's report and used the code to find references to the fall of Vanilla Ice's career. |
|
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_a5549ed0 | featureApplicability |
1.0 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_a5549ed0 | featureConfidence |
1.0 | |
| The Bible | hasFeature |
Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_a5549ed0 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_dc25de3f | type |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_dc25de3f | comment |
In Portal, in a parody of the scientific data dredging version, one of the Fact Sphere's "facts" is: | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_dc25de3f | featureApplicability |
1.0 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_dc25de3f | featureConfidence |
1.0 | |
| Portal / Videogame | hasFeature |
Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_dc25de3f | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_dd936f4a | type |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_dd936f4a | comment |
In a darkly comical moment from The Beastmaster, a villainous pagan priest employs this kind of argument to legitimize the child sacrifice he was performing, which got interrupted when the hero's hawk swooped in and carried off the child he was about to sacrifice. Pointing after the bird as it flies out of sight, he declares "See? I was right! Ogg wants your children!" | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_dd936f4a | featureApplicability |
1.0 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_dd936f4a | featureConfidence |
1.0 | |
| The Beastmaster | hasFeature |
Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_dd936f4a | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_e597b936 | type |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_e597b936 | comment |
Beautifully illustrated in the Principia Discordia with the Discordian Law of Fives: "All things happen in fives, or are divisible by or are multiples of five, or are somehow directly or indirectly appropriate to five." Also in this quote: "Everything in the universe relates to the number 5, one way or another, given enough ingenuity on the part of the interpreter." | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_e597b936 | featureApplicability |
1.0 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_e597b936 | featureConfidence |
1.0 | |
| Principia Discordia | hasFeature |
Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_e597b936 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_ed0165b2 | type |
Sharpshooter Fallacy | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_ed0165b2 | comment |
War and Peace, where Pierre plays around with Napoléon Bonaparte's name and titles to make it all add up to the Number of the Beast, then does the same thing to his own name to "prove" that he's destined to assassinate the man. | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_ed0165b2 | featureApplicability |
1.0 | |
| Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_ed0165b2 | featureConfidence |
1.0 | |
| War and Peace | hasFeature |
Sharpshooter Fallacy / int_ed0165b2 |
The following is a list of statements referring to the current page from other pages.
Copyright of DBTropes.org wrapper 2009-2013 DFKI Knowledge Management. Imprint. - Thanks to Bakken&Baeck for hosting. Contact.
Copyright of data TVTropes.org contributors under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License.
Copyright of data TVTropes.org contributors under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License.