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Sunk Cost Fallacy
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The sunk cost fallacy is a cognitive bias that causes Bob to remain committed to a course of action because he's already spent time or resources on it, even though the commitment is irrational. Bob would be better off taking the loss and walking away, but he keeps going. When Bob is engaging in this fallacy, he will remain set on the course of action even if the profit from his success would be less than what he's already spent. His line of thought might run thus: This trope is not merely for any commitment to a course of action; the above is only a fallacy since Bob will be spending seven dollars instead of spending five to get the prize. If Bob expects to only spend two dollars more on the contest, for example, as opposed to five, it would be valid to continue even if the total spent ends up being more than just buying the prize ($10 vs $5). In order for a situation to be the Sunk Cost Fallacy, all of the following must be true: Bob remains committed to a course of action. Bob is justifying continuing by citing the time and/or resources he has already spent. The cost of continuing will exceed the cost of Bob stopping, taking on the loss, and moving on. Even if Bob calculates that he could sell the prize for twenty dollars, it's still a sunk cost fallacy (because continuing the contest will leave him $5 ahead after the sale, while just buying the prize elsewhere will leave him $7 ahead.) It is also important to note that this fallacy is entwined with economic theory and thus will discount other valid reasons Bob might wish to continue, for example if he was trying to win the contest to impress his peers, or that the shop might be closed so it becomes a matter of "spend 15 dollars now vs spend 5 dollars tomorrow" (this concept is known as Utility). This forms a particularly powerful combination with the Gambler's Fallacy, as Bob might not only continue because he does not want to have wasted his money, but also because the very fact he has made losses is evidence he is "due" for a win. These two false forms of reasoning drive ruinous gambling problems. Compare I've Come Too Far. Contrast Know When to Fold 'Em and Tiger by the Tail. Also called Foot in the door (in sales) Camel's nose (in social psychology) Throwing good money after bad (in business) Pay-or-play (in sports and entertainment) Pouring sand down a rat hole (usually in politics) |
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Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony: This is what trips up Chapter 3's culprit. They created an elaborate deathtrap setup in three different rooms to be able to kill a victim while seemingly being uninvolved... and then got caught setting it up, resulting in them needing to kill the witness. The impromptu murder turned out to be the closest thing to The Perfect Crime in the series, as the witness had been wandering around alone in the middle of the night without anyone else's knowledge and there was nothing connecting the killer to the crime scene, but the killer decided they'd put too much work into such a cool and thematic deathtrap and decided to go ahead with their plan anyways. This second murder leaves enough evidence (with the aid of the killer misspeaking during the trial) to pin the culprit for both murders. Although Korekiyo might not have cared as much about getting caught as killing Tenko so she could be an "admirable friend" for his late sister. This also factors into the mastermind's motivation: having dedicated her life so completely to Danganronpa, she cannot conceptualize a world without it, and chooses to die in the school's destruction. |
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Zee from Animated Spellbook talks about Team Funsize. While delving into the nightmare dungeon of Glitterhame, they lost a partymember, all their equipment, and were nearly beaten to death multiple times over, but had come too far to stop now. Zee specifically calls out that they had clearly never heard of the fallacy. | |
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Community: In one of the documentary episodes, the Dean gets Annie to work as a script supervisor while he directs a commercial. He suffers from a severe case of Sanity Slippage, and after several days of putting up with his increasingly bizarre demands, Annie is completely out of it and ungroomed. She rationalizes the Dean's behaviour because she doesn't want to admit that she's wasted several weeks of her life helping him. | |
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RWBY: Ironwood in Volume 8 ends up being this after losing his sanity due to the situation. He stubbornly insists on trying to send Atlas high into the sky to attempt to escape Salem while leaving all of Remnant to die, despite the fact that by that point Salem has not only managed to land on Atlas with her Grimm, but at least two of her agents are also still on board Atlas, thus defeating the whole point of his idiotic strategy anyways. It's strongly implied that he did this because he needs to justify all of his bad decisions in the past in regards to his callous lack of care for Atlas' sister city Mantle, and how willing he is to sacrifice everyone else for the sake of his ego. To admit he had made a terrible mistake at this point would have also meant admitting he made those bad decisions for nothing. | |
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In a "Blogs of Doom" column in Doctor Who Magazine based on "The Brain of Morbius", Condo asks Solon why he needs to cut off the Doctor's head and put it on the Mix-and-Match Man he's created to house Morbius's brain, instead of just putting the brain in the Doctor's body. Solon replies that he's built a patchwork body and it took a lot of time and effort, and he's using it. | |
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Alluded to in First Man when Neil Armstrong is nearly killed in the LLRV accident. His seniors tell him it's too risky for him to fly such a dangerous machine again. Neil points out that it's the best training they have for how to fly the real lunar module, and that it's a "little late" to talk about not risking the lives of the astronauts. It's clear that Neil commits to the Apollo program because he thinks that backing out would make the sacrifices of the earlier astronauts, and other pilots who died during test flights, count for nothing. | |
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In Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, this is ultimately Miguel's motive for trying to stop Miles from saving his dad. Through the Spider-Society, he allowed the occurrence of "Canon Events" to direct the lives of the various Spiders, despite the deaths and heartbreak they entail. If Miles can save his father, and by extension prove that Canon Events are in fact fairly flexible, then Miguel would have to admit that he's been pointlessly committing Murder by Inaction who knows how many times over, and that he fell short of what Spider-Man is supposed to be. | |
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Extensively discussed in The Dresden Files short story "Bigfoot on Campus" in reference to the White Court of Vampires. Both Harry and River Shoulders reflect on how the White Court is founded on the Motivational Lie started by "some ancient bastard/bitch" stating that it's okay for them to be emotion-draining monsters. The aforementioned bastard/bitch's descendants have then been intentionally obscuring the truth from their own children until it's too late, and subsequently invoke this trope afterwards so that the new vampire will fall into line and accept all the Court's teachings as valid because the only alternative would be realizing that there's no excuse for having killed another human being. Related to this, Charles Barrowill can't accept the possibility that he might not have been a murderer if his parents had just been honest with him, and so tries to use an Appeal to Tradition argument (which ultimately just boils down to this trope) to make sure that his daughter grows up to be as much of a miserable and inhuman monster as he is. | |
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Reacher Gilt's scam in the Discworld novel Going Postal relies heavily on this. Even as the service on the Grand Trunk semaphore line gets worse and worse, he sweet-talks investors and board-members into "throwing good money after bad" while pocketing most of it and covering it up with tricky accounting and corporate buzzwords like "embracing diversity" and "synergistically". Not-quite-reformed con artist Moist von Lipwig is equal parts impressed and disgusted when he realizes what Gilt is up to. | |
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The Licanius Trilogy: A variant of this fallacy is part of why the loyalist faction of the Venerate stay loyal to Shammaeloth. It promises the power to rewrite the past, meaning that all the atrocities the Venerate committed to get where they are can be undone. And so the Venerate persist in their faith, even in the face of mounting evidence that they were lied to and Shammaeloth has nothing but pain and suffering in mind, because giving up on their loyalty to Shammaeloth would mean admitting that all their crimes can never be undone. | |
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The Cleaner (UK): Discussed by the Widow. By the time she realized that she was married to a boring selfish man, she had committed decades of her life to the marriage. She felt that if she left her husband it would render a good portion of her life a waste and she could not deal with that. | |
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In Penny Arcade, the trope is discussed and namedropped in "Finisher," when Tycho explains why he completed Cyberpunk 2077 despite not liking the game, likening it to eating at a buffet that makes him sick because he already paid for it. Gabe asks if he's heard of the Sunk Cost Fallacy, and Tycho gives his less than accurate description of it. | |
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It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown: By the end, Linus decides that he will wait another year for the Great Pumpkin, even though waiting before has cost him at least two Halloweens and the respect of the neighborhood. | |
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The Order of the Stick has Redcloak both lampshade this and deconstruct it, as expressed in Start of Darkness. Redcloak supports Lord Xykon despite being entirely too familiar with the lich's Bad Boss habits and knowing that completing the Plan with Xykon will not work out in Redcloak's favor. It's not that Redcloak believes in Xykon's plan, or even likes the idea of what Xykon is trying to achieve; in fact, Redcloak hates Xykon's guts. The reason Redcloak stays around in spite of his hatred is that Redcloak believes that if he quits, it'll make all of the horrible things he's done worthless. This is in spite of Redcloak being told by both his brother and Xykon himself that this is an empty excuse. In fact, Xykon tells Redcloak point-blank that he's using this flaw of Redcloak's as a way to keep him under control. But because Redcloak feels too invested to quit, in spite of knowing that he's being strung along and that his flaws are being exploited by the lich, Redcloak keeps himself trapped in villainy. This causes him to decay to the point that when someone points out to Redcloak that he already has what he wants, Redcloak still refuses to change course because it would mean admitting to himself that he's made a mistake, and he just can't do that. | |
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The Owl House: Philip Wittebane's initial reason for traveling the Boiling Isles was to rescue his brother Caleb. But after he killed Caleb in a fit of rage, Philip didn't return back home to report his failure and tragedy. Instead, he stayed in the Boiling Isles and devised a plan to wipe out all witches in one swoop so he can return home as the greatest witch hunter. A plan that required centuries to pull off, by which point Gravesfield has moved on from its witch hunting past. When his plan fails at the last minute and he is stranded in the modern world of Gravesfield, Philip refuses to accept defeat and instead digs up the last remaining Titan's Blood to go back to the Boiling Isles and finish the job. It's become evident that he didn't want to accept that his actions were All for Nothing. | |
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In the Disney Ducks Comic Universe, this is ultimately why Magica DeSpell is after Scrooge's #1 Dime. The Witches' Council, as part of the Rite of Passage any witch has to go through to reach adulthood, gave Magica the Midas Touch quest that requires a coin touched and owned for any length of time by the world's billionaires. But the task had been so hard and infuriating that by the time she went to collect the last coin from Scrooge — who was willing to just sell Magica a dime for a dollar — the reveal that Scrooge had his #1 Dime for his entire life caused her to focus on that coin exclusively. Magica rationalized it by believing it would make the Midas Touch charm much better than a random coin that Scrooge just sold her. While the Witches Council has realized facing Scrooge is an impossible task and is willing to let her take a different quest, Magica refuses because she's put too much effort into taking Scrooge's #1 Dime to even consider anything else. As such, Magica continues to fail in her efforts because her pride won't let her accept defeat, and because it would mean all the effort in taking the dime would have been for nothing. | |
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In The Murder of Sonic the Hedgehog, one of the train cars has a slot machine that the player can choose to gamble on. They will always lose, and eventually Tails will outright ask them if they've heard of the fallacy. | |
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The Jolly Roger Telephone Company is a web-based company that provides bots that are designed to waste telemarketer time by responding with pre-programmed routines and other time-wasters like "Yeah" and "uh huh" to make the caller think there's a real person on the other end of the line. In some cases, even after having ages of their time wasted with a bot, the callers will still keep going, thinking that they've already spent all this time already, so at this point they have to get something out of the call. They will grasp at any straw, anything at all the bot says that leads them to believe that the person on the other end of the line is actually interested in what they're pitching. But, of course, there is no person on the other end of the line, only a bot that can never give them what they want because it isn't programmed to do so. note (That being said, even if they wanted to hang up on the bot, they often can't because they're not allowed to do so unless the person is being obviously abusive towards them [which the bots never are] and/or the computerized call system requires supervisor intervention to hang up on their end. Those who decide to cut their losses will start hurling abuse and vulgarities towards the bot to try and get them to hang up, but of course this never works either.) | |
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Epithet Erased: When Molly questions why Mera, whose epithet leaves her in constant pain, doesn't just have somebody use the amulet to take it away, they respond that if they do that, the past decade of training they put themselves through in order to reach their current level of power would be All for Nothing. | |
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Locus from Red vs. Blue. In his mind he has to keep following orders because admitting he has a choice now would mean admitting he had a choice in all his previous actions, and he can't face that. | |
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An Oglaf comic has a group of villagers decide to take a poorly built ship to war rather than cut their losses and have the months of hard work spent on building it be wasted. It doesn't end well for them. | |
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In The Inexplicable Adventures of Bob!, the protagonist explains to recurring villain Fructose Riboflavin that he's chasing a sunk cost, and that it likely feels like giving up on revenge would mean everything else was a waste. Fructose is both stricken by this realization, and really not amused. | |
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In Conned Again, Watson! by Colin Bruce, a book that uses the Sherlock Holmes characters to explain statistics, Holmes explains this fallacy and several others to the client, a businessman who is putting more money into a less successful venture because it cost more to start with, and Watson thinks smugly that he can avoid mistakes like that. The following day, Watson buys a loaf of bread for sandwiches, and then walks past a street vendor selling ham sandwiches at a reduced price to get ham from the butcher. When Holmes points this out, Watson, of course, replies "But I had already bought the bread." | |
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The Last Podcast on the Left: In part 3 of their series on the Aum Shinrikyo cult, the hosts tell the story of a woman who joined the cult, fled multiple times, and each time was brought back and made to undergo the Bardo Initiation, a ritual meant to frighten her into staying. Eventually, when she fled again, she returned entirely on her own because she couldn't escape the thought of the cult's guru, Shoko Asahara, sending her to Hell. Hosts Marcus Parks and Henry Zebrowski note the Sunk Cost Fallacy as one of the reasons for this behavior. By leaving, all the suffering she went through while part of the cult, all the years spent there, all the years her family spent there because of her joining, would become All for Nothing. This idea would become a frequent talking point on future cult episodes, such as L Ron Hubbard's Scientology, Jim Jones's Peoples Temple, and Marshall Applewhite's Heaven's Gate. | |
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